After over two years of global lockdowns, the world is slowly opening back up for business and leisure. But, after the fallout of COVID-19, what will air travel look like in a post-pandemic world?
At the close of 2019, the private aviation industry was already expanding at breakneck speed, course seemingly set on a continual upward trajectory. Then, in early 2020, the pandemic suddenly hit the air brakes. Companies like Jet Linx that had previously enjoyed 30-40% growth year over year, collided with an economic windshear that many worried might ground them for good.
The Second Time the World Went Quiet.
On September 11, 2001, four hijacked jetliners forever altered the aviation industry. From passengers to pilots, boarding passes to boardrooms, nothing and no one would ever be the same. The aftershock of that attack rippled around the globe, and the world, stunned and terrified, held its breath, unsure what to do.
What would flying ‘look like’ post-9-11?
But humans are resilient, and markets elastic. Over time, everyone settled into a new normal. Commercial and private airlines reinvented, reimagined, and retooled to make flying ‘safe’ again. Private aviation spotted an emergent consumer need—to feel secure—and rushed to fill the vacuum.
Before 9-11, private aviation was largely viewed as luxury only the rich and famous enjoyed. After 9-11, flying private shifted from a gold-plated frivolity to a justifiable and reasonable necessity which was why, until 2019, some private airlines grew as much as 100% year over year.
Then, almost two decades later, the world went quiet a second time.
In March of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, no one had any idea what to expect. For the second time in the 21st century, the aviation industry was forced to react to the previously unknown.
According to the founder and Owner of Exclusive Jets, Jason Johnson “that period between February and September of 2020 when the world was quiet is when we were able to think about things and think about where the business was going and ask what recovery looked like? We assumed it wasn’t going to just be a big straight mountain, rather it would look like a check mark. And that’s exactly what’s happened.”
Piloting a Pandemic
During the shutdowns, the private aviation industry had time to reflect, reorganize and ready themselves for when the pandemic eventually ended. Instead of hitting the PAUSE button and waiting to return to ‘business as usual,’ thought leaders in private aviation took a page from what happened on 9-11.
Flying never ‘returned to normal’ after those terror attacks. Rather, over time, industries created a new normal. Why would the post-pandemic world be any different? If business was never going to return to pre-2020, then how could private aviation reinvent itself and be the right service at the right time for the emerging market?
“I would say September 11th was one sort of pivotal shift in the industry. It was fear based more than anything, but where we saw dramatic growth. [It was] nothing compared to the pandemic, though,” said CEO of Solairus Aviation, Dan Drohan.
First, many private airlines took advantage of unprecedented windfalls. For instance, even in 2018-2019 there was a serious pilot shortage. In spring of 2020, when the major commercial airlines instituted massive furloughs and layoffs, private companies did the exact opposite. They stepped in and hired those displaced airline employees.
From pilots to ground crews to mechanics, airlines have always struggled with a shortage of skilled workers. Thus, while the pandemic was certainly inconvenient—not to mention terrifying—it also presented the perfect time to address serious staffing issues that were unlikely to vanish once the public decided to fly again.
Additionally, private aviation companies like Jettly experienced a record spike in demand, serving travelers the commercial airlines had abandoned. In the spring of 2020, airlines began cutting routes and in some parts of the world literally shut down all operations. People, traveling for business or leisure, found themselves suddenly stranded all over the country—or the globe—and desperate for a way to get home.
Then, there were those who wanted to gather their family together and safely relocate to a more ideal place to hunker down during the quarantine.
Private airlines were already largely decentralized, operating out of smaller terminals with comparably very little foot traffic. Travelers who wanted to avoid crowded terminals and flying packed in a giant metal tube with a hundred or more fellow passengers suddenly discovered they had options.
Touch and Go and GONE!
Many private carriers already held a definitive advantage over their commercial competitors going into the pandemic. For instance, most of Solairus’ operations were already decentralized. Flight coordinators, client service directors, and most of the maintenance oversight staff were already working remotely. The abrupt shift to ‘everyone is now working from home’ was as simple as modifying a couple of departments to operating with everyone working fully remote.
This decentralization proved pivotal for pulling out of the pandemic tailspin. While most airlines nosedived straight toward the red for much of the first half of 2020, several private carriers parlayed pandemic problems into pandemic profit.
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported that April 2020 experienced a 96% decrease in airline passengers, compared to April 2019. Contrast this to what Argus TraqPak’s aviation analysts reported for private aviation. May of 2021 was the busiest for private flights since October 2007 and July 1 had the most private flights – 12,345 – since March 20, 2008, and this has only been trending upward since.
While major carriers were shutting down, the smaller, leaner private airlines saw a need and used the pandemic to redefine what it meant to fly private. Chartering a jet or booking a private flight just made sense. Travelers could avoid the countless hotspots where diseases spread. They could safeguard what mattered most—their health, their families, their businesses—while also enjoying unprecedented flexibility and efficiency.
Many private airlines, to this day, provide an elegant ease and posh sumptuosity that can make commercial airlines’ first-class section feel more like coach. When considering the overall price point to fly is roughly about the same, the math is simple when choosing which route offers the better value.
Attitude Determines Altitude
If 9-11 exposed security weaknesses in airline travel, then the pandemic exposed grotesque inefficiencies.
“Particularly here in the U.S., you have 5,000 airports open and accessible to charter operators or private aviation of some form, whereas the [commercial] airlines are using anywhere and at any given point in between 300 and 500 [of them]. So, you have a lot more options. And as we’ve opened up more affordable, flexible entry points, we’ve seen a steep rise in demand,” said Sudhin Shahani, CEO of Surf Air.
If commercial airlines are only using 300-500 of 5,000 airports, this means as many as 90% of available hubs are sitting there as untapped potential energy. This is an obscene amount of time and money being left on the table—not to mention needless waste—when a viable alternative exists.
The pandemic redefined how people lived and worked and highlighted many areas where companies could simply do better. There is a tremendous amount of attention on cleaner fuels, hybridization, and searching for greener alternatives. Since batteries are heavy, it is unlikely aircraft will go fully electric any time soon. In the meantime, however, businesses can ‘go greener’ simply by having employees work smarter not harder.
Cleared for Take-Off
The pandemic decreased business travel by as much as 90% in 2020. During the pandemic pause, priorities dramatically shifted. Companies are keenly aware of ways the pandemic slashed many operational costs. For instance, Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky claimed the company saved nearly $1 billion in travel expenses in 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Top decision-makers have had over two years to rethink travel and envision ways they might hold onto some of the savings, and also keep their employees healthier.
Deloitte’s Why We Fly Matrix stated, “Survey respondents gave public health indicators the highest importance, with about 4 in 10 ranking each of these among the top three developments that could boost their companies’ travel volume.”
Putting the GREEN in Greenlight
Over two years working remotely and relying on technology has had an incredible impact on the environment, and for the better. Not only has it cut corporate travel budgets, but it’s dramatically decreased corporate carbon footprints. Companies, therefore, are searching for ways to increase travel while retaining environmental gains.
Suppliers and intermediaries that can demonstrate a genuine commitment to cleaner fuels and offer the most sustainable trip options will have a definitive edge securing a lion’s share of corporate travel budgets as businesses return to 2019 levels of travel.
If one thinks about this logically, it simply makes more economic/ecological sense for a company to put a team of 10 executives on a chartered jet for two hours of flight time rather than having the same 10 executives idling in traffic for the equivalent of an entire workday.
Time is Money
As an alternative to driving, flying commercial isn’t just bad for the environment, it is grossly inefficient. There’s the commute to airport, long security wait times, crowded terminals that pose potential health risks, connecting flights, rental cars, and drive time to and from meeting locations. How much time is wasted with mandatory security check-ins that last from 1-4 hours before each leg of a flight?
Good question.
Some business trips are no-brainers. No company in their right mind is going to ask an employee to drive from Dallas, Texas to New York City. But how many business trips seem more economical to drive, when in fact, that’s far from the case.
Using the site, Fly or Drive to calculate travel from Dallas, TX to Houston, TX, at first glance, it seems that flying [commercially] and driving cost almost the same in time and money. Flying takes about 3 hours and 31 minutes and driving takes 3 hours and 29 minutes. Flying time value is $35.24 and driving time value is $34.96 (with gas prices at $3.80).
If, however, one flies privately, this drastically reduces the time variable since, when one flies commercial, roughly 65% of the total trip isn’t flying at all. It’s driving and waiting (2.3 hours). For both legs of the flight, this is a combined 4.6 hours driving and waiting where top talent is effectively out of commission.
Additionally, it isn’t as if these 10 execs can practically carpool. What is the carbon footprint of 10 people driving 10 cars 5 or more hours round trip? How much does the company need to pay for gas, food, per diem, hotels, etc.? This is also a combined 50+ hours—more than a standard workweek—where the top paid talent in the company cannot be productive.
Not to mention that it’s impossible for an executive team or sales team to visit two, three or four separate locations in one day and return home the same night when flying commercial.
Post-pandemic, business moves at the speed of flight, and private aviation makes that possible.
Those who can visit multiple customers, factories, or vendors in a single day—and still make it home by dinner—are the rainmakers of the 21st century. Not only are they using their time more efficiently, but again, how much better is this for the environment? A team of ten or twenty executives can utilize a lightweight hybrid plane on a single day, versus multiple people taking multiple legs on multiple flights across multiple days on multiple jetliners while beholden to unreliable and unmalleable flight schedules, creating exponential waste.
Private Jets: Not Just for Rock Stars
When the private aviation industry rebounded, there was a notable shift in their clientele. Flying private has been steadily moving from the realm of the uber-wealthy to those who traditionally would have flown first-class or business class. This industry realignment in private aviation was already evident in 2019.
According to CEO Justin Crabbe, 60% of Jettly’s clients are brand new customers, and 45% of those are Millennials.
While corporate travel remains markedly down compared to leisure travel, those still flying for business no longer want to deal with the cumbersome commercial routine. Private aviation is a very sticky product. The data indicates that those who fly private are highly unlikely to return to traditional airline travel.
In a recent private study, more than half (53%) of new flyers say they will fly privately on a regular basis even after the pandemic. This marks a 29% increase from the 41% from pre-pandemic studies. This clearly indicates that the pandemic nudged private aviation clientele from the super wealthy to the ‘wealthy enough’ early adopters who were willing to pay for increased safety, convenience, and efficiency.
As we have seen with every innovation from the car to the television to the smart phone, this marked shift in the type of clientele likely foreshadows roughly a 10-15-year window before the industry is poised to break into the fat part of the bell curve to the mainstream user.
Especially when looking at Millennials and how they’ve spearheaded a lot of shared-services, private aviation is ripe for this kind of market disruption. What happens when first-class is the new economy class?
Money Talks and Wealth Whispers
For those wanting a peek into the future of private aviation, it seems the industry is branching into three main areas. There are the 21st century business travelers who want to work smarter not harder. Corporations that see more value in chartering a plane for a single day to do as much work as possible and have executives, experts, sales teams, etc. home that same night rather than dragging out the same itinerary over the span of a week or longer.
George Antoniadis, C.E.O. of Plane Sense, makes an interesting point. “Too often the public only sees the flashy stories, which are only a very small minority of all the usage. The stories of the day-to-day, where I go to the local airfield and see eight people with briefcases getting into an airplane to sell their products or going to look at the next factory or company they want to buy don’t make the news.”
Next, due to the massive influx of Millennial customers, there is also the ride-share crowd; those who don’t mind sharing a private plane. Many of the wealthy Millennials made their millions by figuring out ways to bundle services or share costs. The Expedia-Uber-Airbnb generation has already demonstrated they’re open to traveling in unconventional ways. Why would private air travel be any exception?
Finally, we’re left with those private airlines who can offer true white glove service. Just because private aviation has begun serving a broader clientele in no way means the original customers have vanished. Those who wanted their own private jet all to themselves are the same today as they were in 1970.
“Talking about the future is so exciting because aviation is always at forefront of change. Think about flying in the 1960s, or even about where aviation started in the early 20th century. Then, compared that to where we are today.”
Jason Johnson, Founder, Exclusive Jets
Flight Plan to the Future
In the wake of the pandemic, we’ve seen a mass migration away from people living in major cities. A decentralized workforce requires decentralized services. For now, this might mean it simply makes more sense for executives to Uber over to their local airfield and hop on a chartered plane for a day’s work, but what about the future?
And not fifty years from now, but five.
Because the speed of progress is increasing logarithmically year over year. SpaceX has done more in ten years than N.A.S.A. accomplished in over half a century. A six-year-old laptop is essentially an expensive paperweight. So is an iPhone 4.
Whoever invests today is already in the slipstream of tomorrow.
For those who really want to think ahead, these changes are all going to happen so fast you’ll practically hear the sonic boom. Private aviation was already experiencing a drastic shift in clientele, so for those who want in, NOW is that time.
As for what is next in the pipeline, look no further than SpaceX or Axiom.
Air taxi service isn’t an emerging thrill, rather a clear and present necessity. If one takes into account areas like Texas (DFW, Austin, Houston), Nashville, California, it already makes zero sense to commute with anything other than a private aircraft. While it might seem like some futurist dream, VTOL (Vertical Takeoff and Landing) aircraft are already available. In the not-so-distant-future there will be a market for those who want electrical VTOL vehicles they can operate from their back yards.
Executives won’t want to idle for hours in traffic on Santa Monica’s 405 just trying to get to an appointment or, ironically, to an airport. Not only will they not want to, but they will no longer have to.
Sticking the Landing
Like 9-11, the pandemic accelerated changes in most industries, aviation included. COVID forced people to reevaluate how they lived, what they valued, how they worked and what they expected. Perhaps private aviation would have exploded in popularity in another ten or twenty years. Maybe individuals owning a personal aircraft to commute to and from meetings would have developed in the next fifty years.
But maybe and perhaps are relics from 2019. Today, the future is now, in this moment we can either be architects of change or the artifacts left behind. As for private aviation, the industry is going vertical with no signs of slowing anytime soon.
